RE and Foreclosure Chatter

139 and 16, which is an expected increased in the existing homes inventory, since we are into the real selling season; although, I wonder how much selling will be happening this season.

Here is a pic from the yahoo RE listing for the foreclosure on Lewisville Road. The ad says there are no bedrooms and no bathrooms and the price is 45 thousand. The ad does not list a street number or any other identifying info. Since most foreclosures are handled by realtytrac nowadays, there is not that much info unless you subscribe to realtytrac, which I don't. What I am thinking, though, is that this image gives us a lot of info if we are familiar, as we are, with Elk. Take a look at the picture and try to figure out where it is.

The top left is the roofline and parking lot for that garage up there at the intersection of Hickory Hill and 472, which would be on the left, too. So, as I said in an earlier post, I think it's the prefab across from that parking lot. I could very well be wrong and this could be just a stock photo. 

When we were house-hunting, we looked at a prefab somewhere in Upper Oxford, and the price was significantly lower than the regular house like the one we ended up buying. But, I will say that this prefab and the one we looked at didn't look trailer-y, if you get my meaning. They looked like regular houses, or at least enough so that the price seemed like a hell of a bargain. 45 grand! I know there's not a lot of call for rentals out here, but it seems to me that someone who wanted to live here for life could make some money on it as a rental. But, if it is next to a commercial property, as it is in this pic, the value of the property will forever be crippled. Back in the day, when we were looking for houses, we looked at a place up in Lancaster County that had a small mechanical garage next door to it, and we wouldn't even consider it because who knew what the commercial business would become in the future. Who wants to live next to a high-flow commercial property like a WAWA?

So we'll keep an eye on this FC and see what happens.

Probable Foreclosure on Briarcroft Road

I drove down the entire road, and this is the only property that was in anywhere near this state of disrepair. No "for sale" sign, but there is a paper taped to the back door's window. I didn't drive up the driveway to read it, though. The grass is about a foot and a half or so high, the roof has some problems that need to be looked at immediately, and the shrubbery is way overgrown, but it looks like a great investment, but not at the listed price, which I think is way too high.

Seems to me that I first encountered this FC back a couple of years ago, when the real estate house of cards began coming down, and this property was listed as an auction, along with some beach property down in Rehobeth, owned by the same pair, a couple of real estate agents/realtors. Then the property was either sold or the abck taxes or whatever were paid and it went off the radar.

Here's the listing, from Yahoo RE (REO or Real Estate Owned means that the bank owns it now):

Briarcroft Dr
Oxford, PA 19363

$379,496
Bed(s):
3
Bath(s):
3
Foreclosure Status:
Real Estate Owned
Sq/Ft:
-
Age (years):
-
Date listed on Yahoo!:
April 25, 2009
(23 days ago)
Register to see more details
Description
This property is an REO (Real Estate Owned). This is the final step in the foreclosure process. Ownership has reverted to the lender. This 0 square foot property has 3 bedroom(s) and 3 bath(s). The estimated sale price is $379,496.00.

What you cannot see from the photos is the roof, which has some missing or moved shingles, probably from the recent wind storms. I have to say that 380 thousand seems like a pipedream at this point. If there is water damage from the roof problem, then this place won't be worth half that price. My guess is that this place will sit until the price drops to around a quarter of a million.

Got some info recently, too, about the Rocky Glen FC: the owners are still living in it, so I am not going to grab any images. I hope they can get things straightened out.

I think that the Lewisville Road FC is catty-corner across from the antique place at the end of Hickory Hill and Lewisville, right by Matteo's Pizza and that garage. As a matter of fact, I think it is right beside that garage, which we have used and is a nice place, FWIW. The potential FC is a prefab/manufactured housing, I think, and, you'll recall, is listed at like 50 grand. Big difference between these two FCs, huh?

More RE Gains

128 existing homes and 22 foreclosures. The 45 thousand dollar FC is on lewisville, and the Yahoo map places it in between King's Row (sic) and Hickory Hill by Matteo's (sp?) Pizza. In the next couple of days, I will try to remember to pack the camera and grab an image. That's a hell of a low price and sure to unsettle comps for existing homes for sale.

Analysis/Random Thoughts: This is the beginning of the RE season, so it is no surprise to see the existing inventory numbers moving up, even about a dozen in about a week. I expect to see the July 4, 2009 number be somewhere around 160 to 175, and if what I am reading is accurate, we should be at about the bottom of the trough now, meaning for this real estate selling-season. I can't imagine that there's anything below 45 thousand, can you? Think about what it would be like to try to sell your (two or three bedroom with one or one and a half baths, on let's figure a smaller, quarter or half acre lot) home for a buck and a half and thinking that's a low, competitive price, only to find out that there's a FC in the same zip code for one third your price. It essentially takes your home off the market at your price or any price even remotely near your asking/hoping price.

Big RE Jump

First let's talk about real estate: 122 and 20 FCs! That's a doubling of the foreclosure inventory and sure to have an effect on the comps around here in 19363. I count four alone in Elk: two long-term FCs on Rocky Glen and on Briarcroft, but two other, new Elk FCs on Lewisville Road for 45 thousand and on Reisler Road for like 55 thousand. I could be off by a few grand on the last two, but either way, check for yourself on yahoo real estate with 19363. I didn't place any of the other FCs are being in Elk. Cheap FCs! That's investment grade cheap, I think. In some ways, I wonder if we're not getting close to 2001 prices at this point. I noted in the most recent Price-Schiller Report that we are back at 2003 prices, but it seems lower than that sometimes. So much inventory anyways and then these FCs and there must be at least a hundred properties just waiting to list if the market improves even slightly. Then there's the recasting of some of the exotic mortgage products (like WaMu's Pick and Pay mortgage, a very popular product for them up until just last year, believe it or not, that allowed a homeowner to pay whatever he/she wanted to pay and allow the interest to run up to 125 percent of the mortgage price when it would recast and go to a set monthly payment at a certain rate). We're gonna eat more inventory over the next two years as unemployment increases and these crappy almost-subprime mortgages recast. 

Hickory Hill Covered Bridge Repairs Are Finally Finished

Was driven thru the bridge a few days ago, and I was surprised to be told it was open again. Seems like it was just a couple of weeks ago that I was posting those pics of the portojohn out front of the blocked bridge. But here it is!

That shaky interior picture shows a few of the lighter timbers, which I think are replacements. There's also a new little parking space on the south side of the bridge. I hope that people stop littering there. But I am sure you will agree with me that this is a good job, and if serious interior timbers were replaced, even better job! 

These covered bridges are a few of just a handful of exploitable assets here in town. People literally google map these covered bridges and then drive from one to the other, and it wouldn't take much to slow them down and get them to buy a sandwich or pizza at Mateo's and who knows, is there something else the township or its residents/businesses could market??? Don't ever forget how touristy the Amish are. People literally vacation around Lancaster just to see the Amish, and we have them here in droves. They operate small farm stands. Ideas???

Talking about crazy ideas, here's another crazy idea. Grab as much off of the side of a few roadways going thru town and convert them to bicycle/Amish buggy lanes. We'd need about six paved feet to the side of the roads, with some serious painted line to keep traffic off of them. It would demonstrate our commitment to the Amish and their safety. I mean, they probably pay taxes, right? (sarcasm here, although, as primarily farmers, I have no idea what taxes are paid--my own ignorance showing here). With the township building parking lot, people might go there, unhook their bikes, and ride thru the township, stopping to eat at Mateo's (any other restaurants in town? I don't think so) and enjoy their green, environmental workout in the country. My primary motivation for this is Amish safety. I cannot believe how dangerously people drive along 472, and I am always concerned when I see a buggy and then some idiot flying along 472 at 65 or more heading toward them, especially when it's that hilly, serpentine part of 472 by State Road. Secondary motives include exploiting tourists, increasing biking and walking as cardio workouts for overall good health around this area. Finally, I guess it sounds hopelessly liberal but I think it would encourage community and allow people to meet their township neighbors.

RE

9 and 109: not much change.