Saturday, March 7, 2009

Real Estate and Job Loss

This is a chart produced by Speaker Pelosi. Now I know some of you just hate her and all... Whatever. OK, are you over your little flash of anger. Now look at the chart above. Click on it for better detail. It shows job loss in this recession compared to other recessions. Job loss is the big concern for me in this post, especially as it plays out against average home prices. 

105 and 18. That's almost a double in the number of foreclosures in about a week.


Here's some information from ZIllow, the RE site:

Oxford Home Values and House Prices
Population: 5,226
Zindex® $249,500 (Average home price)
Average prices are down 7.4 percent from last year.


The first figure is the OXFORD figure, and the second figure is the national average. I'll bold the OXFORD figures.
Zillow Home Value Index: $249,500 $202,522
1-Yr. Change: -$20,000 -$26,130
Zestimate Per Sq. Ft.: $143 $258
Flips (Sold Twice Within the Last Yr.): 0.0% 2.3%
Turnover (Sold Within Last Yr.): 2.3% 2.2%
Property Tax: $3,708 $2,861
Median Condo Value: $267,500 $216,500
Median Single Family Home Value: $266,500 $234,000
Median 1-Bedroom Home Value: $180,500 $196,500
Median 2-Bedroom Home Value: $198,000 $205,000
Median 3-Bedroom Home Value: $243,000 $231,500
Median 4-Bedroom Home Value: $300,500 $337,500

Just from what I observe, I think that the Oxford prices for 2, 3, and 4 bedroom houses is a little inflated. Maybe Zillow gets this info from the LISTING prices as opposed to the SALE prices.  Either way, with only a 2.3% turnover rate, there isn't exactly a lot of sales from which to garner info. Think about it for a second: we've looked at a figure of about 100 existing homes for the last several months. Zillow is telling us that only 2 of those have sold in that time period! Talk about anemic sales.

To say the least, it's a buyer's market, and with the most recent jobs report (down another 600 thousand jobs nationally) and the insanity of the big banks (which should be "nationalized" in exactly the same way that sinking banks are "nationalized" by the FDIC), potential buyers are about as scarce as the mortgages they might want to apply for. 

Sit tight, folks, it ain't at the bottom yet.

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