RE

147 and 16 foreclosures. The Rocky Glen is still around at the high 200s (280, I think), and, although there has been a lot of activity at the Briarcroft one (i.e., mowing and some upkeep), it's still listed for 380.

Lots of WWE trucks and RV Buses at WalMart Parking Lot in Elkton Last Week

RE

156 and 13 FCs

RE

167 and 12

Bald Eagle

I saw this bald eagle as I was driving about a tenth of a mile just north of camp Bonsul and Forge on the east side of 472.

Almost a tornado, almost

Saw this over the horizon, facing north, between FairHill Park and the High's store on Applebrook and 273.

RE

169 and 16--not much change

RE

181 and 14--the only FC in Elk is the one on Briarcroft and it is still 370k.

Stricklersville Road Wind Damage

Real Estate for the First Week of August 2009

185 homes for sale; 12 foreclosures.

Lot of inventory! Nice low number for the Fcs, though. When I go back a year, I find about 165 and 15, so the numbers haven't changed that much. Last fall, we were over 200 for homes with a few more FCs, so I'm wondering if we're seeing some small improvement. I'll wait until fall and we can compare once again.

RE

137 and 17

RE

Sorry about missing a week.

141 and 15, so not that much of a change.

I noticed that 472 is being oiled and covered with new pebbles, which is good because it was getting a little worn out.

RE

133 and 15

Brookings Institute Unemployment List

Check out this list. We're at about 8.1 percent unemployment.

Brookings Institute Housing Price Decline pdf File

Check out the following link for the worst housing price declines. There is an associated map, but the problem areas (that have seen the worst price declines) are metro areas south and east of here. We're down about 2.3 percent in the last year.

http://www.brookings.edu/%7e/media/Files/Programs/Metro/metro_monitor/metro_ranks/housing_price_change_year_ranking_table.pdf

Real Estate

136 and 17.

So I was wrong last summer, when we had similar numbers, and suggested that we would see a large increase in both existing and FCs. 

I'm still wondering about the hidden inventory that could emerge when the market improves, plus I'm hearing a lot about green shoots and things not getting any worse. Could we be at the bottom? What I am reading suggests that the Alt-A loans (not technically subprime; these are the liar loans and no-doc mortgages) are in the middle of the recast season when they are adjusted after a few years of low interest rates to Prime plus whatever number of points is specified in the mortgage paperwork. With all the developments in Oxford--especially the ones with half acre or smaller lots that came online two or three years ago--I'd figure that many of those buyers got funky loans like Alt-As, which for the record were the kinds of loans given to people who believed they could refinance or sell and move up in a few years--both of which are difficult to say the least. 

Well check out my Foreclosure Cleanout of Oxford blog or leave a comment here if you are interested in having a foreclosed home cleaned out. 

Real Estate This Week

138 and 19. Also, quite unexpectedly, I was driving by Briarcroft and saw a huge dumpster in the driveway with a guy off-loading lots of household stuff into it. I figure that means the place is going to be under the maintenance of the bank that now owns it. Let's hope, for the neighbors' sake, that the bank gets the lawn mowed since it must be almost three feet high.

RE and Foreclosure Chatter

139 and 16, which is an expected increased in the existing homes inventory, since we are into the real selling season; although, I wonder how much selling will be happening this season.

Here is a pic from the yahoo RE listing for the foreclosure on Lewisville Road. The ad says there are no bedrooms and no bathrooms and the price is 45 thousand. The ad does not list a street number or any other identifying info. Since most foreclosures are handled by realtytrac nowadays, there is not that much info unless you subscribe to realtytrac, which I don't. What I am thinking, though, is that this image gives us a lot of info if we are familiar, as we are, with Elk. Take a look at the picture and try to figure out where it is.

The top left is the roofline and parking lot for that garage up there at the intersection of Hickory Hill and 472, which would be on the left, too. So, as I said in an earlier post, I think it's the prefab across from that parking lot. I could very well be wrong and this could be just a stock photo. 

When we were house-hunting, we looked at a prefab somewhere in Upper Oxford, and the price was significantly lower than the regular house like the one we ended up buying. But, I will say that this prefab and the one we looked at didn't look trailer-y, if you get my meaning. They looked like regular houses, or at least enough so that the price seemed like a hell of a bargain. 45 grand! I know there's not a lot of call for rentals out here, but it seems to me that someone who wanted to live here for life could make some money on it as a rental. But, if it is next to a commercial property, as it is in this pic, the value of the property will forever be crippled. Back in the day, when we were looking for houses, we looked at a place up in Lancaster County that had a small mechanical garage next door to it, and we wouldn't even consider it because who knew what the commercial business would become in the future. Who wants to live next to a high-flow commercial property like a WAWA?

So we'll keep an eye on this FC and see what happens.

Probable Foreclosure on Briarcroft Road

I drove down the entire road, and this is the only property that was in anywhere near this state of disrepair. No "for sale" sign, but there is a paper taped to the back door's window. I didn't drive up the driveway to read it, though. The grass is about a foot and a half or so high, the roof has some problems that need to be looked at immediately, and the shrubbery is way overgrown, but it looks like a great investment, but not at the listed price, which I think is way too high.

Seems to me that I first encountered this FC back a couple of years ago, when the real estate house of cards began coming down, and this property was listed as an auction, along with some beach property down in Rehobeth, owned by the same pair, a couple of real estate agents/realtors. Then the property was either sold or the abck taxes or whatever were paid and it went off the radar.

Here's the listing, from Yahoo RE (REO or Real Estate Owned means that the bank owns it now):

Briarcroft Dr
Oxford, PA 19363

$379,496
Bed(s):
3
Bath(s):
3
Foreclosure Status:
Real Estate Owned
Sq/Ft:
-
Age (years):
-
Date listed on Yahoo!:
April 25, 2009
(23 days ago)
Register to see more details
Description
This property is an REO (Real Estate Owned). This is the final step in the foreclosure process. Ownership has reverted to the lender. This 0 square foot property has 3 bedroom(s) and 3 bath(s). The estimated sale price is $379,496.00.

What you cannot see from the photos is the roof, which has some missing or moved shingles, probably from the recent wind storms. I have to say that 380 thousand seems like a pipedream at this point. If there is water damage from the roof problem, then this place won't be worth half that price. My guess is that this place will sit until the price drops to around a quarter of a million.

Got some info recently, too, about the Rocky Glen FC: the owners are still living in it, so I am not going to grab any images. I hope they can get things straightened out.

I think that the Lewisville Road FC is catty-corner across from the antique place at the end of Hickory Hill and Lewisville, right by Matteo's Pizza and that garage. As a matter of fact, I think it is right beside that garage, which we have used and is a nice place, FWIW. The potential FC is a prefab/manufactured housing, I think, and, you'll recall, is listed at like 50 grand. Big difference between these two FCs, huh?

More RE Gains

128 existing homes and 22 foreclosures. The 45 thousand dollar FC is on lewisville, and the Yahoo map places it in between King's Row (sic) and Hickory Hill by Matteo's (sp?) Pizza. In the next couple of days, I will try to remember to pack the camera and grab an image. That's a hell of a low price and sure to unsettle comps for existing homes for sale.

Analysis/Random Thoughts: This is the beginning of the RE season, so it is no surprise to see the existing inventory numbers moving up, even about a dozen in about a week. I expect to see the July 4, 2009 number be somewhere around 160 to 175, and if what I am reading is accurate, we should be at about the bottom of the trough now, meaning for this real estate selling-season. I can't imagine that there's anything below 45 thousand, can you? Think about what it would be like to try to sell your (two or three bedroom with one or one and a half baths, on let's figure a smaller, quarter or half acre lot) home for a buck and a half and thinking that's a low, competitive price, only to find out that there's a FC in the same zip code for one third your price. It essentially takes your home off the market at your price or any price even remotely near your asking/hoping price.

Big RE Jump

First let's talk about real estate: 122 and 20 FCs! That's a doubling of the foreclosure inventory and sure to have an effect on the comps around here in 19363. I count four alone in Elk: two long-term FCs on Rocky Glen and on Briarcroft, but two other, new Elk FCs on Lewisville Road for 45 thousand and on Reisler Road for like 55 thousand. I could be off by a few grand on the last two, but either way, check for yourself on yahoo real estate with 19363. I didn't place any of the other FCs are being in Elk. Cheap FCs! That's investment grade cheap, I think. In some ways, I wonder if we're not getting close to 2001 prices at this point. I noted in the most recent Price-Schiller Report that we are back at 2003 prices, but it seems lower than that sometimes. So much inventory anyways and then these FCs and there must be at least a hundred properties just waiting to list if the market improves even slightly. Then there's the recasting of some of the exotic mortgage products (like WaMu's Pick and Pay mortgage, a very popular product for them up until just last year, believe it or not, that allowed a homeowner to pay whatever he/she wanted to pay and allow the interest to run up to 125 percent of the mortgage price when it would recast and go to a set monthly payment at a certain rate). We're gonna eat more inventory over the next two years as unemployment increases and these crappy almost-subprime mortgages recast. 

Hickory Hill Covered Bridge Repairs Are Finally Finished

Was driven thru the bridge a few days ago, and I was surprised to be told it was open again. Seems like it was just a couple of weeks ago that I was posting those pics of the portojohn out front of the blocked bridge. But here it is!

That shaky interior picture shows a few of the lighter timbers, which I think are replacements. There's also a new little parking space on the south side of the bridge. I hope that people stop littering there. But I am sure you will agree with me that this is a good job, and if serious interior timbers were replaced, even better job! 

These covered bridges are a few of just a handful of exploitable assets here in town. People literally google map these covered bridges and then drive from one to the other, and it wouldn't take much to slow them down and get them to buy a sandwich or pizza at Mateo's and who knows, is there something else the township or its residents/businesses could market??? Don't ever forget how touristy the Amish are. People literally vacation around Lancaster just to see the Amish, and we have them here in droves. They operate small farm stands. Ideas???

Talking about crazy ideas, here's another crazy idea. Grab as much off of the side of a few roadways going thru town and convert them to bicycle/Amish buggy lanes. We'd need about six paved feet to the side of the roads, with some serious painted line to keep traffic off of them. It would demonstrate our commitment to the Amish and their safety. I mean, they probably pay taxes, right? (sarcasm here, although, as primarily farmers, I have no idea what taxes are paid--my own ignorance showing here). With the township building parking lot, people might go there, unhook their bikes, and ride thru the township, stopping to eat at Mateo's (any other restaurants in town? I don't think so) and enjoy their green, environmental workout in the country. My primary motivation for this is Amish safety. I cannot believe how dangerously people drive along 472, and I am always concerned when I see a buggy and then some idiot flying along 472 at 65 or more heading toward them, especially when it's that hilly, serpentine part of 472 by State Road. Secondary motives include exploiting tourists, increasing biking and walking as cardio workouts for overall good health around this area. Finally, I guess it sounds hopelessly liberal but I think it would encourage community and allow people to meet their township neighbors.

RE

9 and 109: not much change.

That Potential FC Just North on 472 at Woods and Saginaw

I was driving by that potential FC I wrote about last week and saw a contractor gutting it. I grabbed some photos:

This is the east side and the rear of the house.

This is the front. You can see the front door has been removed.

Real Estate Posting

RE this week: 105 existing homes and 7 foreclosures. That's an interesting move in a week!

Also I saw an excerpt from an article about the north Texas RE market. I'm thinking that posting it in full is better than making fun of the logic and paraphrasing. So here goes:

The supply of unsold new homes in North Texas is less than half what it is in hard-hit markets in California and Florida. But that doesn’t mean the housing industry here hasn’t suffered. Single-family home starts have fallen more than 60 percent since the peak in 2006. And several prominent homebuilding firms in the area have gone out of business.”

“‘We’ve seen some fallout and are likely to see some more,’ said Texas builders president Ron Connally of Amarillo. ‘There are a lot of good builders out there who haven’t done anything wrong who have been caught.’”

“The National Association of Home Builders has seen its membership decline by almost 50,000. ‘Our biggest obstacle is getting the financing,’ Connally said. ‘We very well could wake up and see shortages in the market by the time this thing sorts out.’”

I mean, come on! The Homebuilder's Association has lost members (naturally) and the big concern is that at some point in the future, we'll not have enough new real estate to meet our needs. Talk about drinking the KoolAid in Jonestown; There's no going back to the easy credit of the 1990s and 2000s, and without that easy credit (which is also easy foreclosure situations, as the current economic crisis has made clear), there will likely not be a need for new inventory in a general way (not to say that specific area or regional development, say waterfront on the Chesapeake, will not continue to be built) for the foreseeable and then some future.

What also bothers me is the notion that something is stopping the tough-guy homebuilders from north texas from plying their trade. Yeah, it's called an insolvent banking industry that received part of its deathblow from you vampiric developers.

Paging the East Nottingham Zoning Officer!

These are two pics of that dump on the corner of 472 and Glendale (or is it Glen Dale?) that houses the workers from the mushroom houses just to the left of the house (as you are looking at the pics). 

What. A. Disaster! 

What's worse is if you drive by, you'll notice the crap all over the front yard by the tree, the god-awful siding and missing paint, and the total state of shambles this place is in. I don't hold it against the workers who live here for the sorry state this place is in; I hold it against the house owner.

RE This Week

15 FCs and 106 Existing Homes for sale. I wonder where the five FCs from last week went.


View Larger Map


OK, so here's an interesting upscale FC in a nice development:

Briarcroft Dr
Oxford, PA 19363

$379,496
Bed(s):
3
Bath(s):
3
Foreclosure Status:
Real Estate Owned
Sq/Ft:
-
Age (years):
-
Date listed on Yahoo!:
December 11, 2008
(125 days

The image of the house/property is a generic image from RealtyTrac, a company/web site that I have not registered to join. Either way, note how long this house has been in FC: since December 11, 2008--three months ago. Also note the unrealistic (for a FC) price; although, to be fair, I would imagine that this is about the going rate for property in this area of Elk. I'll try to drive by and locate the place and snap some photos sometime in the next few days.

There's also a new FC on 472 where it intersects with Saginaw, about a mile north of Elk in East Nottingham (I guess). The house is right on the corner, on the south west side of the intersection (even though it's not on Saginaw--it's on the road on the other side of 472. It's a real dump, and there was a poor mixed breed dog tied out under some tarp held between a bunch of pine-type trees in the backyard. Now someone has removed all the overgrown brush around the house, and there's been some trash/junk removal. I expect it to go FC any day now.

It's Monday, April 20, 2009, and I got some pics today in the rain of the potential FC as I drove by on 472:

Brick Meetinghouse Road--Old Roads in the Area

Click in on Brick Meetinghouse Road, which is right above the marked A on the map.  OK, now scroll over to the left/west and follow Blake and then drop down to 273 just east of where it connects with 272 and you'll see another east/west Brick Meetinghouse Road. I'll look for an old map to see if I can show that these two "separate" roads with the same names and the same general directions were joined at one time.

View Larger Map

OK, I found some info. This is from an email posted online for a reunion:

"I have just received information from the group planning the 300th
Anniversary of the Nottingham Lots on the grounds of the Brick Meetinghouse
(East Nottingham Monthly Meeting) in Calvert, Cecil County, MD (formerly
Chester Co., PA) on September 29-30, 2001. The grounds are just off MD 272,
on Brick Meetinghouse Road in the village of Calvert, a short distance north
of Exit 100 off I-95.

The celebration is being conducted by the East Nottingham Trustees,
caretakers of the Brick Meetinghouse at Calvert, MD, with the oversight of
the Oxford, PA Friends. Visitors from everywhere are welcomed.

This historic area was settled by a number of Quaker families during the
1700's and 1800's, originating from southeastern PA, West Jersey, New York
and New England. William Penn established the 37 Lots in 1701 (originally
in Chester Co., PA) and the area became "ground zero" for the land dispute
between Penn and Lord Baltimore which led to the drawing of the Mason-Dixon
line between PA and MD. Many Quaker families passed through here and
subsequently moved south to Maryland, Virginia, the Carolinas, and to the
West."

Real Estate in Oxford, PA (19363)

107 Existing and 19 FCs

Sometimes I wonder if I should find a better instrument to measure the local RE market, but I've been using this one for so long that, even if slightly inaccurate, over the long haul, it should provide an interesting histogram.

RE

I was thinking as I drove around town over the last couple of weeks that there seemed like more for sale signs were out by the road than usual, but a check of Yahoo real estate shows 18 foreclosures and 109 existing homes for sale, which is pretty stable with the last few weeks. So I guess appearances can be deceiving and a simple check of the facts is often needed for any kind of "common sense": DUH!

I've been wondering if I should try to find another rubric for measuring the real estate market.  

Interactive Map Showing Unemployment Rates And Housing Boom Locations

Found something interesting in a link to the NY Times:

"Job losses have been most severe in the areas that experienced a big boom in housing, those that depend on manufacturing and those that already had the highest unemployment rates. (Updated March 19 with January data.)"

You'll love the map, which shows Chester County's unemployment rate at 5.6 (I believe) and Cecil at 9.1. Wow, and what with Elk right along that line, I wonder what southern Chester County's unemployment is.

Trip Across Country PIcs and RE

This is out the window of the plane, looking north, just west of Fort Collins, Colorado. If you look closely, you can see that there are two giant buttes down there in the front of the image.

This is an image of examples of the largest trees in the world. 400 feet high and almost 3,000 years old. 

This is the view from a restaurant called the Cliff House, where I had a glass of wine and watched the sun go down into the Pacific. The hill two miles or so across the water is Marin County, CA. Want to talk about expensive real estate?

Let's talk about our local real estate (once again, as always, using yahoo real estate for the metrics):

18 foreclosures and 106 existing homes for sale, and it's nice to see the FCs under 20 again. I was thinking about that jump to 23 FCs last week, yesterday as I was driving around: probably that temporary spike in FCs was caused by the long lagtime it takes the banks to unravel liens, etc. when a property moves from NOD (notice of default) letter to bank-owned REO. How three jumped off the radar like that is anyone's guess. It wouldn't surprise me if there were listing agents who listed REOs for a day to a week and already had under-offers from fellow Realtors (another word for liars), as this is a scam that has been ongoing on the west coast and in FLA.

Cool sunny morning today--a quick frost last night, but the grass is greener since last week and the crocuses (croci?) are up. We're in what I would definitely call spring. 

PA Wine Laws: A Disgrace!

I would love to order a case of very good CA wine, but because we live in taliban central, I can't get any winery to send wine into PA (or MD or DE, for that matter). What a joke!

Why is it that buying a case of beer is acceptable (and to whom is it acceptable) but buying a single bottle or a six-pack is not acceptable?

Is there any group that actually thinks that the PA booze laws make any sense at all or serve any purpose at all? 

I rarely buy booze, wine, and beer in PA; I drive over the border and get it there. Sometimes it boggles the mind that both parties talk about the invisible hand of the market and all that bullshit, and obviously this state needs more tax revenue, but they don't think about how much money they could make if they stopped their anti-market based little booze cartel.

Here's the reason I got so peeved: http://wi.shipcompliant.com/Home.aspx?SaleTypeID=1

Here's a toast from a bottle of wine that comes from a case I bought last summer for almost 400 bucks--tax money that's right in the MD coffers. Cheers!

RE This Week

104 and 21, which is a few more FCs than last week but about the same number of existing homes.

What is somewhat surprising to me is that I think we will see a rise in inventory as we enter the spring/summer selling season. I hadn't thought that foreclosure numbers would rise since they have been fairly stable for the last year. FC, you'll remember, are comp killers and not just in some facile Ayn Rand "Oh the market will work things out" kind of way. In fact and very specifically, a FC within a few miles on a similar home will cause a mortgage lender to ratchet down the amount it will lend. For instance, say I'm selling a four and three and a half on an acre, and there's a similar home--like the longtime FC on Morningmist, which is a ten or so year old development of nice colonials just off 472 and Glen Dale (or is it Glendale?)--the bank is going to look at all recent sales and sales activity as it prepares the mortgage analysis, and the "value" of the home will be held in comparison to the FC. Oftentimes, I have heard that mortgage banks often ask the buyers to make up the difference between the sales price and the comps, and this difference can be pretty noticeable if there is a FC in the comparisons.

So it's been a wild ride sof ar. Let's see what happens this selling season.

Oh, by the way, how many times have you heard this phrase recently (and not just about real estate): "There's never been a better time to buy"? American cars and other high priced goods are being wrapped in the "Buy: it's your patriotic duty" mantra now more than ever.

New BLS Unemployment Stats

from here, so you can go verify my work:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

Unemployment data from that page:

Pennsylvania ...................| 4.6 | 7.0 | 2.4
The first number (4.6) is January 2008 unemployment; the second (7.0) is from Jan 2009, and the 2.4 percent is the calculated increase, which a table at the bottom of the page tells us translates into 72,000 lost jobs in that one year period.

MD and DE went up 2.6 and 2.8, while the two Carolinas top the job loss with both up 4 and a half or so each.

Real Estate and Job Loss

This is a chart produced by Speaker Pelosi. Now I know some of you just hate her and all... Whatever. OK, are you over your little flash of anger. Now look at the chart above. Click on it for better detail. It shows job loss in this recession compared to other recessions. Job loss is the big concern for me in this post, especially as it plays out against average home prices. 

105 and 18. That's almost a double in the number of foreclosures in about a week.

Here's some information from ZIllow, the RE site:

Oxford Home Values and House Prices
Population: 5,226
Zindex® $249,500 (Average home price)
Average prices are down 7.4 percent from last year.

The first figure is the OXFORD figure, and the second figure is the national average. I'll bold the OXFORD figures.
Zillow Home Value Index: $249,500 $202,522
1-Yr. Change: -$20,000 -$26,130
Zestimate Per Sq. Ft.: $143 $258
Flips (Sold Twice Within the Last Yr.): 0.0% 2.3%
Turnover (Sold Within Last Yr.): 2.3% 2.2%
Property Tax: $3,708 $2,861
Median Condo Value: $267,500 $216,500
Median Single Family Home Value: $266,500 $234,000
Median 1-Bedroom Home Value: $180,500 $196,500
Median 2-Bedroom Home Value: $198,000 $205,000
Median 3-Bedroom Home Value: $243,000 $231,500
Median 4-Bedroom Home Value: $300,500 $337,500

Just from what I observe, I think that the Oxford prices for 2, 3, and 4 bedroom houses is a little inflated. Maybe Zillow gets this info from the LISTING prices as opposed to the SALE prices.  Either way, with only a 2.3% turnover rate, there isn't exactly a lot of sales from which to garner info. Think about it for a second: we've looked at a figure of about 100 existing homes for the last several months. Zillow is telling us that only 2 of those have sold in that time period! Talk about anemic sales.

To say the least, it's a buyer's market, and with the most recent jobs report (down another 600 thousand jobs nationally) and the insanity of the big banks (which should be "nationalized" in exactly the same way that sinking banks are "nationalized" by the FDIC), potential buyers are about as scarce as the mortgages they might want to apply for. 

Sit tight, folks, it ain't at the bottom yet.

RE News from Maryland That Might Be Pertinent to our Area

"“The problem for a number of potential first-time buyers - and thus for all sellers - is that prices are still high compared with incomes. After doubling between 2000 and 2007, the average metro-area home price dropped to $306,000 last year. To swing that, a first-time buyer with a 10 percent down payment would need a salary of about $70,000. And $306,000 was the average for all homes, from condos to Colonials. Most single-family homes are more expensive.”

“People who can’t sell their starter homes can’t buy a bigger place, and the owners of those bigger places can’t go anywhere, either. That’s why economists say home sales probably won’t increase until prices fall even more, as they have in other parts of the nation. ‘The buyer’s going to win this game of chicken,’ said Anirban Basu, a Baltimore economist.” "

From: http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html March 4, 2009

This excerpt was from a Baltimore-based article, but I think it portends a grim RE future for us in southern PA because, except for the DC area, which has seen some slippage but is still a pretty good market (in comparison to other places, or this is what I am told), many areas in MD didn't see the same bubble inflation, just as we here in southern PA/Chester County saw prices increases but not at the same rates as other places.

Long story short: There are a lot of upper-end colonial development homes on the market right now--many of them in the high 300s/low 400s--and the very people that those sellers are trying to attract are likely trying to sell their lower-end homes to no avail.

Another article mentioned that incomes need to rise or prices need to fall to get to a sweet spot where having a twenty percent downpayment will be more common as we move forward. Folks, the days of Liar loans/No Docs and No Downpayment loans are definitely over. As a matter of fact, I bet it's pretty damned tough to get a regular thirty or forty year fixed rate even with twenty percent down.

RE This Week, Snow Story, Potholes, and Some Nice Aesthetic Improvements

The photo on the left is off the first farm on the left heading east on Stricklersville Road (down a little and across the street from the old schoolhouse that's now a hairdresser's place), which I was told was close to becoming a development. I don't know if you can make out the farm equipment in the field, but, once again, I doubt that this farm-owner is going to develop any homes here this year. 

The second, middle pic is of the abandoned farmhouse on Lewisville, where Brick Meetinghouse Road (I'm pretty sure that's the street name) ends and meets 841/Lewisville Road, just south of Stricklersville Road. It's a nice place but has been unoccupied for the last four, five, six years now. Someone put a little paint on it and cleaned it up recently, and it's looking better; although, it would be nice to see someone living there.

The photo on the right is the real news. That's the apartment house on the corner of Stricklersville and Lewisville, which was for sale last summer (I don't know if it ever traded hands), but when it was for sale, there were some improvements done to it, and the biggest improvement, I think everyone will agree, is the coat of blue paint on it. I wouldn't say that this little intersection area (Stricklersville, Lewisville/841/Brick Meetinghouse) is densely populated, but the houses are a little closer together than other areas of Elk and it's sort of the back-end of the old village, and it's an area that has several really nice places, and there's just one more that looks like it's a rental currently that needs a new coat of burnt umber/yellow paint to make it more presentable.  

OK, let's talk about real estate.

Yahoo Real Estate: 110 existing and 10 foreclosures. So the inventory is down slightly; this is no surprise: I'm betting a couple to three dozen went off-market when the holidays came around, and I'm betting we'll see about 40 homes come online sometime next month when the spring buying-season begins. My guess is that this will be another buying-season that has few sales and mostly adds inventory into the game. I don't know if I'll recall, but I guess that with the big banks still struggling and making huge mistakes with our tax money (thanks George Bush! for that first trillion dollar smash and grab of Treasury funds) and unemployment high and the economy lagging (we're down to 1997 Dow numbers of below 7000 today!), there will be 170 homes and 15 to 20 FCs killing comps come Memorial Day.

Hell of a snowstorm last night and this morning. We got about 6 inches with winds about 25 MPH and temps down in the low 20s. Last week was pretty nice, and it looks like this weekend the temps are back into the normal range of 40s and low 50s during the day. The sun is certainly powerful now, and the driveway, which I shoveled around 11:30 this morning, is now almost completely dry. Can't say anything about the snow removal for this storm since I haven't left the house. I did see a truck driving along the streets at about 5 am this morning, and the road looks pretty cleared out right now. So let's chalk up yet another good job to whoever is taking care of the roads here in Elk last night and today. Good work, Guys!

On another note, the potholes are getting out of hand in some places around town. On Saturday I commented to the passenger in the car with me that none of the Supervisors must notice the giant pothole on southbound 472 about fifty feet from the southernmost end of 472. It's right outside the township building, and it's growing by the week, but I guess I'm the only one who bangs through it when I forget to navigate around it.  

Pics From the Traffic Accident Site From Last Week

These photos are really in the reverse order than what I intended, but I'm still getting used to posting pics and videos. 

So the bottom, fourth, pic shows the southern approach along 472 to the accident site on the left of 472, about three phone poles down just over the roof of that mushroom house, in the field on the left. This bottom pic also shows the mushroom house on the left and that was where the State Police cruiser, ambulance, and two other vehicles, were parked. The accident was about a tenth of a mile south of them on the same side. 

The third photo down also shows the same info but with me approaching just south of the Buchanan's farm sign. On one of the two bottom photos, I used a photo editing tool to circle the accident site. 

The second photo down shows the mark in the side of the road (to the left, as this is also facing south on 472) where I surmise that the minivan maybe blew a tire or ran off to the left of the road. I wanted to get a closer photo, but,as I captured this image, I noticed a sedan quickly approaching me from behind as I idled by the accident site. The sedan was going about 45 or 50, which is about average (if not a little below average) speed for this part of 472. Needless to say, rather than be a new addition to this accident site, I hit the accelerator and roared off ahead of the sedan.

After I was done with errands, I was heading back north and decided to get an image from that direction of the accident site; This is the first, top photo, which shows the accident on the right of the photo. The gouge in the roadside can also be seen in the top photo. 

Speculation about how the physical accident happened: I'm thinking that the minivan really impacted hard as it moved sharply across from the right to the left of 472; there are skids indicating this in a line leading to the impact gouge there. The incredible impact caused the minivan to roll over going forward and spinning to the east southeast to where it finally came to rest, all rounded and dented down to the bare metal in many places from the rolling, with all the windows busted out, about thirty feet (this is a guess based on the one time we drove by right after the accident--it might have been twenty or forty feet; I'm not certain) east of 472 and about the same or more distance south of where it gouged out that car hood-sized slice of roadway.  What caused the driver to lose control is beyond the information I can garner from observation and analysis, and I certainly hope the person and any passengers are unhurt or on the mend. As previous posts about accidents have proved conclusively, speeding around hereis a potentially lethal risk. 

A final note: one road that I almost always really speed on was being watched by the State Police a couple of days ago--it's outside of Elk--and if a considerate oncoming driver had not flicked her headlights at me, I almost certainly would be moaning about a ticket for going 65 in a 35 zone. I know everyone does it, but, Man, the idea of that kind of costly ticket (and seeing that destroyed minivan)  should override any thrill or time-savings I get from speeding. 

B-2 (?) at 8:32 PM Flying Southeast; Accident along Lewisville Road/472 a third of a mile south of the Buchanan's Farm

Sitting at home, saw lights out in the NW sky along the horizon, and then a B-2 came overhead, flying at about 1000 feet with landing lights blinking. I'm fairly certain it was a B-2; heading toward Aberdeen, I bet. This isn't the first odd, lights-in-the-sky object we've seen here in Elk Township. But the others have always had running/landing lights on, so we've always imagined that they were associated with Aberdeen or maybe even Dover. With the two wars, it's no surprise.









Also, today at about mid-afternoon, driving south on 472, came up and saw in the field across from the old farm on the stretch of 472 a third of a mile south of Century Farm at the Buchanan's(sp?) farm or a half-mile south of the 472 intersection at Forge Road and Camp Bonsul on the left as you're heading south, saw a smashed up (i.e., very dented everywhere and all windows broken out and bent frame) minivan, and then came upon a State Police cruiser, an ambulance, an EMT cruiser vehicle, and another vehicle (a black japanese pickup maybe???) right on the roadway by the old farmhouse where there is a rental trailer out back and a small pond. The ambulance and the EMT vehicle drove toward Jennersville/Oxford, north on 472 slowly, not speeding, as if the occupant was in no hurry to reach the hospital. I checked Google news and Philly.com but nothing there. I'll try to remember to bring my camera tomorrow if I go out and grab a pic.

It was here in the field along the right side of 472:


View Larger Map

RE

123 and 10.

Unemployment Numbers

http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.pa.htm


July to Dec 2008:

Unemployment Rate (2)

5.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.2

So two months ago, it was 6.2. 

Yahoo Real estate

124 and ten. I haven't seen a for sale sign disappear from some of the inventory I drive past in the last few months. It must be terribly frustrating to try to sell a home now.

RE

118 and 8--some movement but not worth commenting on.

Plus the snow from yesterday was not handled as well as previously. All surrounding towns and townships did a better job, except, of course, EN.

Covered Bridge Construction Update and Icy Roads Last Week

No idea why the dates are set European, but it's Jan 25, 2009, and this is what the (is it?) three months of "construction" have yielded. Doesn't look like much has happened. Maybe the "construction" was a ruse b/c the bridge was structurally unsound. Who knows. It'll be nice when this bridge is open once again.

Also wanted to note, in the spirit of my more positive/productive posts, that I was driving home from Elkton last Sunday or Monday or whatever day when it snowed all day long, and on the day it was coming down hard and the day afterward, the roads in Elk were always in better shape than the roads in Elkton/Cecil County and into East Nottingham Township and into the Borough of Oxford. The roads in Elk are almost always in better shape when it snows than in other places. There's often a good coat of salt and gravel already waiting before it snows. So good work, whomever plows and watches out for the roads.  

Yahoo RE for 19363

117 and 10.

Cold as hell outside--18 degrees with 15 MPH wind.

A RE Theory from a Calculated Risk Posting

I was reading something of interest, related to earlier RE posts, on calculated risk (one word @blogspot.com):

"As the U.S. housing recession enters its fourth year, there’s no sign of a recovery because speculators account for most of the rise in sales.
...
While the purchases are trimming the inventory of unsold properties, most of those bought by speculators will likely return to the market when prices rise again, hampering any recovery, said Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and Yale University Professor Robert Shiller in interviews.

“We’re creating a shadow inventory of homes that will be right back on the market as soon as the economy and the housing market begin to improve,” said Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor of economics. “We could see a double-dip in the housing recession if that happens.”"

(http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/speculators-or-investors.html)

What I find interesting isn't that speculative investors have bought up all that inventory that disappeared in the fall, but that some fraction of that inventory--at the lower end, I imagine???--as rock-bottom-priced real estate. I've seen some great deals--the one on Glendale springs to mind, and that seems to be a rental or a owner-residing fixer-upper now.